Editor’s note: This article is not written to cause fear or panic around COVID-19, it is to be objective given the facts at this time.

Brendan Lines March 25 2020

The Azerbaijan Grand Prix in Baku is now the eighth race to be postponed or cancelled on the 2020 Formula 1 calendar as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. The race in Baku originally set for June 5th to 7th, until now, carried the hopes of Formula 1 that the 2020 season might resume. But just how realistic is the notion Formula 1 can begin racing over the European summer or completing a 2020 season?

Formula 1 CEO Chase Carey Image: F1.com

Right now, Formula 1 CEO Chase Carey has laid plans for a reduced 15 to 18 race calendar to start “at some point this summer.” The revised calendar could run beyond the current season finale in Abu Dhabi on November 29th.

In a statement made on Tuesday Chase Carey was still unclear of the specifics and the issues affecting the situation.

“It is not possible to provide a more specific calendar now due to the fluidity of the current situation but we expect to gain clearer insights to the situation in each of our host countries, as well as the issues related to travel to these countries, in the coming month.” – Chase Carey

The decision to postpone Baku comes after the monumental decision to cancel the Monaco Grand Prix last week.

Cancellation of the Monaco Grand Prix has for the first time made public the exact factors which Grand Prix event organisers must consider in very arduous multi-faceted decisions.

The Automobile Club de Monaco (ACM) statement articulated the clubs decisive action, saying the situation had become ‘no longer tenable,’ along with the ‘gravity of this crisis worldwide.’

The factors that lead to the ACM’s emphatic realisation were said in its statement:

It’s an unenviable task Carey has, but perhaps the thinking behind the ACM’s decision might be the framework Carey would want to apply when working with host countries and event organisers.

Let’s be clear, if we apply the thinking behind a race that was ultimately cancelled, then it might suggest everything is off — NO.

Up until the Monday before the cancellation of the Monaco race, organisers were still operating under the principality’s special exceptions for work to continue building the 3.3km street circuit — there was intention to go ahead trying to preserve a race.

If that’s the case it might just be the means-test we can use to assess the likelihood wether we go racing. Now it would be quite exhaustive if we applied this to every remaining race, so lets ask the question; will the season get away during the European summer months?

A few things first:

The minimum championship set out in the FIA’s sporting regulations is eight races, we now have 20 races in hand after two cancellations, 14 races remain scheduled and 6 postponed.

As teams collectively put support behind the health and safety of their employees which triggered cancellation of the Australian Grand Prix, after a McLaren Racing team member tested positive to the virus — it’s likely teams will pull-out again if there is any further risk — let’s dive in.

Canadian Grand Prix

The Canadian Grand Prix in Montreal is the next available race to get the season underway, scheduled for June 12th to 14th. Add the news today that the Tokyo Olympics have been postponed to 2021, after Canada withdrew its Olympic team. Staging an international event like a Grand Prix might seemingly go against the sentiment of the nation.

Pandemic Evolution

Currently Canada has recorded 1,959 cases and 27 deaths because of the virus as reported by the Canadian Government at the time of this article.

Montreal’s circuit Gilles Villeneuve lays in the middle of the country’s epicentre of the virus, with more than 500 probable and confirmed cases to date.

The 10-day forecast of active cases in Canada is projected to be over 23,787 following a University of Melbourne’s BioScience modelling.

If we are concerned about the ‘evolution’ of the pandemic like in the ACM’s decision, the evidence is clear. Formula 1 would be placing its fraternity right in the middle of Canada’s growing epicentre of the virus.

Is Formula 1 and its teams concerned about the health and safety of all involved? — it’s an emphatic YES.

Travel Restrictions

The Canadian government has imposed a self-isolation period of 14 days for all travellers. That means teams with all their staff will have to be in Montreal on May 30th, where do you accomodate around 500 track-side staff across all the teams? and how do they work remotely in their roles?

At the moment the US-Canadian border is closed to non-essential travel, only the movement of foods, goods and medical supplies — obviously this has implications that create much uncertainty around the participation of the Haas F1 Team.

People Power

Right now, race organisers GP Canada say all preparations for the June 12,13 and 14 dates are following their course.

As for availability of a workforce to provide all the necessary infrastructure, goods and services of a Grand Prix, reports are saying 500 000 Canadians have applied for unemployment benefits in the last week — but the $42.4 million in economic spinoffs the race provides, the local economy could ill-afford to lose.

Do we race? Perhaps behind closed doors — but practically if Haas cannot get there, if there is another reported case in the paddock and the teams pull-out, if the teams can navigate the expense and logistical nightmare of accounting for a 14-day self-isolation period — it’s highly unlikely we’ll race on schedule.

French Grand Prix

Circuit Paul Ricard is the next destination on the calendar as it stands set for June 26th to 28th. The Grand Prix de France, organisers have said in a statement on their website:

“In view of the information on the spread of Coronavirus, there is no reason to call into question the organisation of the 2020 French Formula 1 Grand Prix. The dates of the next Formula 1 French Grand Prix are therefore maintained.”

Pandemic Evolution

At the moment the French Government has not quarantined the country but there are clusters of COVID-19 around certain regions, the French government asks visitors do not travel to these areas, fortunately, Circuit Paul Ricard in Castellet is not near these areas.

But the current 10-day forecast sits at over 84,870 cases, with a doubling time of four- point eight days. As it stands now France is the fifth country behind Italy, China, Spain and Iran to exceed 1,000 deaths.

As of March 17th the French Government has imposed a full nation-wide lockdown that could extend to six weeks, reports say; “This includes the restrictions of movement and a potential ban on meetings and business” — public gatherings of more than 100 people are now banned. Which in essence means if we can race it would be behind closed doors.

Travel Restrictions

At the same time France went into lockdown EU leaders suspended all travel into the passport-free zone by non-EU nationals for at least 30 days, it is unknown if this will change.

But let’s go with the 30-day period and say with no strict travel bans or a 14-day isolation period, the way might be open for teams based on the European mainland to arrive safely.

There is however again US-based Haas, who could be affected if the ban to all Non-EU nationals is extended any further.

People Power

If we believe the French Grand Prix organisers, then everything is ‘peachy’ in preparation for the race.

Do we race? most likely behind closed doors it would seem. The proximity of the track to the local airport is quite tenable, but this is a highly optimistic proposition.

So that takes care of the remaining June races, most likely we’ll hear these races will be postponed, doing that places them later in the year, making it harder to fit in all the postponed races we have so far.

Into the unknown: July and beyond

July is where the Austrian, British and Hungarian Grands Prix are scheduled to take place, any forecasting of the pandemic’s evolution here would be high speculation, it would be prudent not to spread more panic.

But what is apparent, is governing body Motorsport UK extending its suspension of all racing events until June 30th, which is very close to the scheduled July 17th to 19th dates of the British Grand Prix.

In August we have the Belgian Grand Prix and obviously this period is opened up to perhaps slot in postponed races, as Formula 1 has brought forward its summer break period to now.

The biggest concern is the Italian Grand Prix, which potentially could place the whole Formula 1 fraternity into the epicentre of the outbreak in Europe.

Put simply, the longer it takes for the season to get underway, the more difficult it is to reschedule around more likely postponements to complete a 15 to 18 race season.

The commitment from Chase Carey is to bring fans a 2020 season he says.

‘While at present no-one can be certain of exactly when the situation will improve, it will improve and when it does, we will be ready to go racing again” Carey says.

Carey who has this unenviable task of getting the 2020 season away, but amid any further postponements and the immediate evolution of the pandemic, it looks very unlikely we’ll get a season started “at some point this summer.”

That is if we apply the ACM’s thinking to the cancellation of the Monaco Grand Prix, a race that has featured in every season of Formula 1 until now. For the moment teams now go into their imposed summer break awaiting Carey’s decision on a 2020 season, McLaren and Mercedes have turned their attention to look at manufacturing respirators to cope with increased demand.